This Week in Apps - Can Google Dethrone OpenAI?
This Week in Apps is a short, no-fluff, round-up of interesting things that happened in the mobile industry. Here are our top highlights.
U.S. Revenue Index (vs. 30 days ago)
Insights
1. Google Gemini Finally Comes to the App Store - Can it Catch Up ChatGPT?
Google has finally released Gemini, its ChatGPT competitor, as a standalone app on the App Store and I'm very curious to see if it can do what Claude didn't and catch up to ChatGPT.
Even though we're talking about Google here, catching up with ChatGPT is a tall order considering it's currently responsible for roughly half of the revenue of the top 1,000 AI apps on the App Store and Google Play!
That's a little tease from a new AI report we'll be publishing very soon.
Gemini was released to Google Play back in February, and our estimates show that it was downloaded 64M times since. That's quite a few downloads, but... ChatGPT's Android app was downloaded 130M times in the same period. And ChatGPT isn't even new!
Will Gemini face the same reception on the App Store?
Google Gemini launched on the App Store almost a month ago, and since its release, saw 4.5M downloads, according to Appfigures Intelligence. It peaked at 250K daily downloads, about 25K downloads shy of the initial peak of the Android release.
The downloads are primarily driven by the US, which holds the only two-digit share with 26%, followed by India, Japan, Brazil, and the UK. Those are normally countries where Android apps excel, so it's interesting to see this.
Claude, a competing language model that launched on the App Store back in May and on Google Play in June, hasn't been able to catch up to ChatGPT. Our estimates show Claude got 4M downloads since launch. Less than what Gemini saw in its first month.
But back to the big question - has Gemini caught up to ChatGPT?
Our App Intelligence shows the answer is very clear, and unfortunately for Google the results aren't even close. ChatGPT saw 10M downloads from the App Store since Gemini went live last month - more than twice as many.
Why? Claude and Gemini are doing a poor job with their App Store presence. That might sound harsh but it's true. "Claude by Anthropic" and "Google Gemini" don't describe what these things do + they don't tell the search algorithm where to rank the app. ChatGPT doesn't do that either, but it managed to capture enough brand recognition that it doesn't need it as much. The newcomers do.
Many 3rd party AI apps get more downloads and earn more money than Claude on the App Store and Google Play every day for the same reason. Crazy, right?
2. The REAL Reason Disney Stopped Subscriptions on the App Storeā¦
It's been almost two months since Disney+ and Hulu stopped accepting new subscriptions on the App Store, joining other apps like Spotify and Netflix in protest of Apple's fees.
Disney+ is consistently in the top 10 highest-earning apps in the world and Hulu is not very far, so this move didn't make too too much sense for me. But... Now that we have enough MRR data I think the reason is a bit clearer - and it isn't just about fees.
Disney+ had its biggest month of revenue in October with $99M of net revenue (after store fees), an increase of 19% compared to January. A positive growth trend that started back in June. Considering both monetize with subscription services, you'd expect that when they stop accepting new subscribers their revenue trend would stop going up and to the right and instead become pretty flat.
But that's not what our estimates are showing.
In November, the first full month of no subscriptions, Disney+'s net revenue dropped by about $16M and Hulu's by 28% - that's double-digit millions in both cases - which means paying users are abandoning Disney at an alarming rate.
I think the reason Disney pulled out of subscriptions in the App Store is because they couldn't figure out how to fight the churn which in turn necessitated getting fresh subscribers which isn't easy. If you're monetizing with subscriptions, make sure to keep your churn in check.
3. X Scores Its Biggest Day of Revenue During Black Friday
X ran a Black Friday promotion, something I haven't seen any other social platforms do, and I was sure it would not move the needle much because who's really waiting for a discount on something like X?
Turns out a lot of people did.
I've checked in on X's revenue every month since Twitter Blue came out but this check in is by far the biggest!
Appfigures estimates put X's net revenue in November at $16.5M. That's what Elon gets to keep after giving Apple and Google their share. That's the biggest month of revenue for the platform and 27% higher than October, which was its biggest month prior.
Given Elon's involvement in the elections, you might think the increase in revenue is related - and to some extent it is - but for the most part, the new revenue came around Black Friday.
Our App Intelligence shows that weekly net revenue during election week was twice as high as the average weekly net revenue in February. But that's not the big spike!
The bigger spikes in revenue came in the week of Black Friday and Cyber Monday with the latter setting an all-time record for the app. We estimate that those two weeks earned the platform a smidge more than $12M - and that's net revenue which doesn't include Apple's and Google's share.
Although the campaign is over, revenue hasn't dropped to where it was pre-promotion. It's lower, around $700K/day, but still nearly double what it was before, according to our estimates.
I expect to see rivals do the same next year.
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4. Social Reigns Supreme - The Most Downloaded Apps in November
I crunched the numbers and ranked the most downloaded mobile apps in the world in November and the winner is...
Instagram was, again, the most dwnloaded app in the world in November. Our App Intelligence shows it was downloaded 53M times from the App Store and Google Play in November, though the majority of downloads came from Google Play.
TikTok came in second with 45M estimated downloads and like Instagram, the majority came from Google Play. Who will take those downloas in case TikTok gets banned in the US?
WhatsApp, Facebook, and ChatGPT round out the top 5 most downloaded apps in the world in November. The Meta trio has dominated the top 5 for a long time and November wasn't any different, but the ranks swapped - Facebook dropped and WhatsApp rose.
ChatGPT is a new entrant into the top 5, and I don't expect it to stray much in the future as OpenAI continues to innovate and users continue to think of ChatGPT as AI, leaving no room for competitors Gemini and Claude.
Together, the top 10 most downloaded apps in November raked in 338M new downloads from the App Store and Google Play globally, according to our estimates. A touch lower than October's total but not enough to be alarmed and more than expected given the overall trend of downloads dropping across the board.
5. ChatGPT Enters the Arena - The Highest-Earning Apps in November
I crunched the numbers and ranked the highest-earning mobile apps in the World in November, and the list is a bit different than October.
TikTok was the highest-earning mobile app in the world in November, earning a whopping $298M of net revenue from the App Store and Google Play - though mostly from the App Store, according to our App Intelligence. That's 11% higher than October and only a rounding error away from $300M, which is just wild! And this is net, which means what Bytedance gets to keep after Apple and Google take their fees.
They'll need every penny to ensure TikTok doesn't get banned in the US, which could lead to it being banned in other countries.
YouTube came in second but with less than half the revenue - $136M net. Unlike TikTok, YouTube's revenue dropped a bunch when compared to October's. Maybe that's why the price of YouTube TV is increasing again?
Disney+, Tinder, and Max round out the top 5 highest earners, and if you're thinking, "Wasn't the list the same in October?" the answer is yes. The trio ranked the same in October but revenue of all three dropped a bit.
A few interesting surprises in November:
- Two China-only apps made the combined list and three made the App Store list. Only one did in October. This is important because these apps are generating enough revenue to rank globally but are only available in China. That's big!
- Audible made it into the 8th spot in our combined list. It's not the first time Audible made the cut, but it's not common either. Audible's revenue has been growing consistently and I expect to see it on our list in the coming months as well.
- ChatGPT has finally made it into our combined list. I expect to see it ranking consistently within the next few months now that that OpenAI introduced the $200 price tier, making it one of the most expensive-yet-popular in-app purchases in the App Store.
We estimate that together, the top 10 highest-earning apps saw $982M of net revenue in November. A smidge shy of October's big 1B, but I'm pretty sure we'll be back to that in December, so stay tuned.
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The insights in this report come right out of our App Intelligence platform, which offers access to download and revenue estimates, installed SDKs, and more! Learn more about the tools or schedule a demo with our team to get started.
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All figures included in this report are estimated. Unless specified otherwise, estimated revenue is always net, meaning it's the amount the developer earned after Apple and Google took their fee.
